Oil prices rose on Monday despite lingering fears over a potential global trade war triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff plans targeting steel and aluminum.
Brent crude futures climbed 1.2% to $75.53 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 1.3% to $71.90. The rebound follows three consecutive weeks of decline, with investors engaging in bargain hunting after recent losses.
Market Uncertainty and Tariffs
Analysts attribute the gains to uncertainty surrounding tariffs, which affect risk appetite and spill over into the oil market. Trump is set to announce a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, following previous tariff measures on Canada, Mexico, and China. While concerns persist about the impact on global economic growth and energy demand, investors appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach.
Global Supply Disruptions
Meanwhile, China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, including crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), are set to take effect, with traders seeking waivers from Beijing.
Additionally, U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil have disrupted supplies, tightening the market. Washington’s latest sanctions, imposed on January 10, have impacted Russia’s exports to top clients like China and India, while new restrictions on Iran’s oil shipments to China further constrain supply.
Outlook on Oil Prices
Despite current price strength, Citi analysts forecast Brent crude to average between $60 and $65 per barrel in the second half of 2025, citing Trump’s persistent efforts to lower energy prices as a key bearish factor.
