Oil prices remained largely stable on Thursday, recovering from earlier losses of more than 1%, as a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine weighed on the market while expectations of a pause in new U.S. tariffs fueled optimism.
By 11:15 a.m. CST (1715 GMT), Brent crude futures had slipped 17 cents (0.2%) to $75.01 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down just 1 cent (0.1%) at $71.38.
Market sentiment improved after reports that new U.S. tariffs would not take effect until April, allowing room for negotiations. “We saw a big recovery in prices on tariffs not going into effect until April,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. “That will allow time for negotiation.”
On Wednesday, oil prices dropped more than 2% following U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had separately expressed interest in peace talks. Trump subsequently directed U.S. officials to begin discussions on ending the war in Ukraine.
Analysts suggest that the shift from supply concerns to a more stable outlook contributed to the price decline. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that some market participants anticipate an increase in Russian energy exports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that Russia’s crude production slightly increased last month, indicating that exports could remain steady despite U.S. sanctions.
“Optimism that risks to crude oil supplies would ease” has put downward pressure on prices, ANZ analysts said, referring to U.S. and EU sanctions.
Additionally, U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), further weighing on prices.
Despite these developments, analysts continue to monitor the geopolitical situation and economic factors, including inflation concerns that could influence the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rate cuts in 2025.
