The Federal Government has reaffirmed its ambitious goal of increasing Nigeria’s oil production to 4 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030.
Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Energy, Olu Verheijen, disclosed the administration’s comprehensive plan during an exclusive interview with Arise News on Wednesday.
Verheijen explained that the government is implementing fiscal incentives and removing bureaucratic hurdles to attract international oil companies (IOCs) and boost local investments. She emphasized that enhanced investment is critical for reaching the production target.
“The President took this with a super analytical mind. He realized early that this sector is strategic to our short-term and long-term ambitions,” she said.
Presidential Engagement and Fiscal Reforms
Verheijen revealed that President Tinubu has actively engaged global oil executives, signaling Nigeria’s dedication to reforming its investment climate. She stated:
“Whenever IOCs request meetings, the President prioritizes them, seeking to understand and address their concerns.”
A key aspect of the strategy includes executive orders introducing deep offshore investment incentives. These measures aim to minimize regulatory delays, enhance cost competitiveness, and provide tax incentives, making Nigeria one of the top three most fiscally attractive gas investment destinations globally.
Verheijen highlighted Shell’s Bonga North project as a success story benefiting from these incentives. She also mentioned that within months of implementing these reforms in 2024, Total and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) approved a $550 million non-associated gas field investment.
Deepwater Investments Crucial to Ambition
Stressing the importance of deepwater exploration, Verheijen said:
“Deepwater projects are essential to achieving the 4 million bpd target. There’s simply no alternative.”
She confirmed that key agencies—including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Ministry of Finance, and NNPC—are aligned to support Tinubu’s oil and gas policies.
Significant Output Gains Achieved
Since President Tinubu assumed office, Nigeria’s oil output has increased by 500,000 bpd in less than two years. NUPRC data shows production hit 1.73 million bpd, including condensates, in January 2025.
Verheijen credited the growth to a “data-driven approach” in tackling security challenges in the Niger Delta. Collaborative efforts with the Office of the National Security Adviser, Ministry of Defense, and oil operators have strengthened pipeline security.
“The terminal factor for the Trans-Niger pipeline, a critical trunk line, improved from 10% to nearly 90% within a year,” Verheijen noted.
Challenges to Nigeria’s Oil Production Goals
Despite recent progress, Nigeria still falls short of its 2025 target of 2.06 million bpd, as set in the N54.99 trillion national budget. While OPEC retained Nigeria’s production quota at 1.5 million bpd until 2026, massive oil theft and underinvestment remain major obstacles.
Industry experts assert that while achieving the 4 million bpd target is feasible, it hinges on drastically reducing oil theft and sustaining investor confidence.
Nigeria in the Global Oil Landscape
Nigeria remains Africa’s largest oil producer. However, it lags behind top global producers such as Saudi Arabia (9 million bpd), the United States (13 million bpd), Russia (9 million bpd), and Canada (5.5 million bpd).
With President Tinubu’s proactive engagement and strategic policy initiatives, Nigeria is positioning itself for substantial growth in the oil and gas sector.
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