Nigeria’s quest to ramp up crude oil production to 2 million barrels per day (mbpd) has hit another roadblock as output declined again in May, raising fresh concerns over the country’s ability to meet its ambitious target.
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), daily oil production fell from 1.68mbpd in April to 1.65mbpd in May. More specifically, crude oil output dropped from 1.48mbpd in April to 1.45mbpd last month—a setback after a promising uptick the previous month.
This downward trend comes despite earlier momentum. In March, production stood at 1.40mbpd, rising to 1.48mbpd in April, signaling progress toward Nigeria’s 2.1mbpd goal. However, May’s figures show that gains have been reversed.
Breakdown from NUPRC:
- Peak daily output in May: 1.810 million barrels (crude + condensate)
- Lowest daily output: 1.61 million barrels
- Average daily production: 1,657,435 barrels
- Crude oil: 1,452,941 bopd
- Condensates: 204,493 bopd
The commission noted that Nigeria’s average crude production in May was 97% of its OPEC quota of 1.5mbpd. While that meets international expectations, it still falls short of the government’s internal production target, raising fiscal and budgetary implications.
With dwindling production and increasing domestic demand, experts warn that Nigeria’s revenue projections and foreign exchange earnings could take a hit. Challenges like pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and regulatory uncertainty continue to undermine recovery efforts in the petroleum sector.
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