China is set to reaffirm its production-centric economic strategy in the upcoming Communist Party plenum (October 20–23), emphasizing industrial strength and technological self-reliance even as tensions with the United States intensify.
Long a proponent of boosting exports and manufacturing output, Beijing’s strategy prioritizes sectors like electric vehicles, rare earths, and advanced manufacturing. Analysts say China’s model still favors industrial growth over consumption, despite repeated calls over the years to rebalance toward domestic demand.
The new five-year plan (2026–2030) is expected to double down on “hard power” metrics: production scale, strategic supply chains, export competitiveness, and innovation. While some social or welfare reforms may be floated, fundamental shifts toward a consumption-led model are unlikely in the near term.
China faces headwinds, deflationary pressures, a languishing real estate sector, municipal debt, and high youth unemployment. These structural challenges underscore the risk of overreliance on industrial stimulus as a growth anchor.
Observers warn that unless internal demand is strengthened, China’s vulnerabilities may deepen: weak household consumption could undermine long-term sustainability. The reaffirmed industrial approach also underscores that Beijing views its economic contest with Washington as one of scale, production, and control of strategic value chains.
