The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has highlighted the significant impact of Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery on the European petrol market. The 650,000 barrels-per-day refinery, which began operations in January last year and started producing Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) in September, has altered fuel supply dynamics globally, especially in Europe.
OPEC reported that the Dangote refinery’s production has reduced Nigeria’s reliance on European petroleum imports. “The ongoing operational ramp-up efforts at Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery and its gasoline (petrol) exports to the international market will likely weigh further on the European gasoline market,” OPEC stated in its report on Wednesday.
The report explained that gasoline exports from the Dangote refinery free up volumes in international markets, forcing Europe to adjust its supply flows and find new destinations for its excess gasoline. Additionally, the reduced demand for imports in Nigeria has improved the country’s external sector outlook, with oil product imports declining in the last quarter of 2024.
OPEC noted that gasoline inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp storage hub remain high, with further builds expected due to winter-season demand-side pressures. Despite slight increases in the gasoline crack spread in Rotterdam against Brent, the bearish market sentiment may deepen as the Atlantic Basin faces a lengthening gasoline balance.
On crude production, OPEC disclosed that Nigeria’s daily output in December 2024 reached 1.507 million barrels per day (bpd), a 12,000bpd increase from November’s 1.477mbpd. This figure aligns with data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, which reported 1.485mbpd for the same period.
The Dangote refinery’s scale and capacity have elevated it above Europe’s largest refineries, according to Bloomberg. At 650,000bpd, it surpasses Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands (404,000bpd) and TotalEnergies’ Antwerp refinery in Belgium (338,000bpd), among others.
The $20 billion Dangote refinery not only addresses domestic fuel needs but also positions Nigeria as a key player in global fuel exports, with its ability to refine petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel.
