Crude oil demand is expected to remain steady at current levels over the next 15 years, according to a forecast from commodity trading major Vitol, challenging previous predictions from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that anticipated peak demand growth before 2030.
Vitol’s long-term report predicts that crude oil demand will continue to rise in the coming years, peaking at approximately 110 million barrels per day. After reaching that peak, demand is expected to gradually decline, eventually stabilizing at the current average of 105 million bpd by 2040.
This stands in stark contrast to the IEA’s forecast, which predicts that crude oil demand will peak just above 105 million bpd within the next four years. BP’s forecast is even more pessimistic, projecting that oil demand will reach its peak by the end of this decade before gradually decreasing to around 91.4 million bpd by 2040.
Despite Vitol’s forecast indicating a continued demand for crude oil, the company acknowledges the ongoing energy transition.
It predicts that gasoline demand will decrease due to the rise of electric vehicles, particularly in China, but this decline will be offset by increased demand for petrochemicals. Vitol analysts project that petrochemical demand will contribute an additional 6 million barrels per day by 2040, accounting for 20% of global crude consumption. In contrast, gasoline demand is expected to fall by 4.5 million barrels daily over the same period.
Additionally, the forecast suggests growth in demand for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) over the next decade and a half, further influencing the demand dynamics in the oil market.
