Nigeria’s rice production has fallen to its lowest level in four years, declining by 7% in the 2024/2025 season to 5.23 million metric tons from 5.61 million metric tons in the previous season, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report.
Other estimates suggest an even steeper decline of up to 23%.
Farmers cite rising input costs, insecurity, climate change, and competition from cheaper imports as key reasons for the drop. Many have reduced their cultivation areas or switched to less expensive crops. The suspension of the Anchor Borrowers Programme, which previously provided subsidized inputs, has worsened the situation.
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Millers are also struggling, with paddy prices surging by 100% and operational costs tripling. Despite Nigeria’s rice milling capacity of 7.5 million metric tons, millers are facing unutilized capacity and shutdowns due to high costs.
To ease the burden, President Tinubu granted import waivers for rice paddy, but forex volatility continues to challenge affordability and competitiveness in the market.
