The Trump administration is preparing to announce rulings on a backlog of biofuel exemption requests from small U.S. refiners as early as Friday, though a decision on whether larger refiners will be required to compensate for waived volumes is expected to be delayed.
According to sources familiar with the matter, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will address part of the 195 pending exemption requests, some dating back to 2016. The rulings are expected to include a mix of approvals and partial denials but will not deliver an outright victory for small refiners.
The administration is also expected to introduce a supplemental rule next week, seeking public input on whether refiners should make up for previously exempted gallons through a process known as reallocation. The EPA has already committed to applying reallocation for future exemptions but has remained silent on how it would address past waivers.
The outcome of these rulings carries significant implications for both the oil and agricultural sectors, influencing the prices of gasoline, renewable diesel, ethanol, soybeans, and corn. In the past, widespread exemptions without reallocation have lowered the value of biofuel blending credits and weighed on commodity prices.
Analysts note that the upcoming decisions will be closely watched by refiners, farmers, and renewable energy producers, as they could reshape the dynamics of the U.S. biofuel and agriculture markets at a critical time.
