Nigeria’s oil sector is showing renewed strength, with crude oil production rising in August 2025 and fueling optimism for the nation’s 2025 fiscal outlook.
According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), crude oil output averaged 1.43 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, representing a 5.47% increase from the 1.36 million bpd recorded in August 2024.
The uptick is timely, as the federal government’s 2025 budget projects overall production of 2.06 million bpd (including condensates), anchored on a benchmark oil price of $70 per barrel. Oil revenues are expected to play a major role in achieving the projected ₦10.08 trillion in government revenues.
While production gains are a welcome development, challenges remain. Daily condensate output dipped to 197,229 bpd, down 10.5% year-on-year, and overall crude production fell 4.8% month-on-month due to unscheduled maintenance at a Niger Delta facility.
Still, key export terminals like Forcados, Bonny, and Escravos drove momentum, with Forcados alone recording nearly 9 million barrels in August. Experts note that recent security and maintenance investments in the Niger Delta have been critical in stabilizing operations.
Industry analysts stress the need for further infrastructure improvements to meet the government’s ambitious 2.1 million bpd year-end target.
“The uptick in crude output is a step in the right direction, but sustaining this momentum will require operational stability and infrastructure investment,” an energy analyst in Lagos said.
With global oil prices hovering around $75 per barrel amid geopolitical uncertainty, the production surge is expected to strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal reserves, support budgetary plans, and ease deficit financing as the country works toward energy security and economic stability.
