Despite huge uncertainty oil markets have been less responsive to crisis than in the past, and crude oil demand remains resilient
With the new year, analysts have been sharpening their pencils, or whatever the digital equivalent is, and looking closely at potential development of the energy markets, and the follow-on implications for tanker shipping.
At the 2026 Hellenic American Norwegian American (HACC NACC) conference in New York, Rystad Energy’s consultant Dane Ingles provided the opening keynote presentation, with a long-term view of the oil market, melded with views of implications for the tanker markets in the coming years. Ingles talked about the dip in oil prices over the past four years, saying that we’ve seen the “greatest uncertainty…at least… in this century”. But the oil markets are less responsive than previously. After mentioning the various crises involving Ukraine, and the actions in the Red Sea, he said: “This is the first time that we’ve ever really seen the oil markets not respond in the same way that they would do historically to pretty major uncertainties”.
Mentioning the oil markets’ lack of response when Israel bombed nuclear facilities in Iran, he said, “The markets really did not do anything…it’s a strange dynamic that we’ve not seen before”. He attributed this to the ability of suppliers in the Middle East particularly, and in the shale patches in the States, to ramp up production very quicky to dampen upside volatility.
Across many industries, forecasters have pulled back on sharp downward slopes for oil consumption- Rystad suggests that fossil fuels and crude oil demand will be higher for longer- “resilient crude oil demand”, in Ingles’ words.
“There’s no perception of declining energy demand,” he said. Longer term, existing crude supply sources might not be able to meet demand; Ingles presented forecasts suggesting that additional oil exploration is needed to balance needs in “higher demand scenarios” and “we don’t have enough resources” to meet that demand out towards 2050.
His comprehensive illustrated slides pointed to a gap of as much as 50 million barrels per day (mpbd) between a “high demand” case for crude oil in 2050, above 100 mbpd, and a much lower quantity of available supply. In commenting on possible sources to fill the supply void, Ingles mentioned limited growth prospects in Brazil, Namibia and others- suggesting that the Middle East would be the source of incremental oil supply growth. Noting shipping’s interest in alternative fuels, he focused on biofuels supply and demand and voiced a similar conclusion- “simply not enough supply out there to meet demand.”