Economic experts have backed the International Monetary Fund’s cautionary stance on Nigeria’s reform agenda, urging the Federal Government to sustain ongoing economic reforms and avoid policy reversals, particularly as political pressures build ahead of the election cycle.They warned that compromising reforms could undermine recent gains in inflation moderation, weaken investor confidence, and further strain the economy, which remains vulnerable due to limited fiscal buffers.The IMF’s Country Representative for Nigeria, Dr Christian Ebeke, during a panel discussion at the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook event of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Lagos, warned Nigeria against reversing recent economic reforms, noting that such a move would erode hard-won macroeconomic gains.Ebeke noted that although progress had been recorded, Nigeria’s reform agenda was far from complete, pointing out that inflation remained in double digits, thereby limiting policy flexibility.“Government intervention in controlling prices and volumes is no longer sustainable for Nigeria. The objective going forward must be to stay the course on both fiscal and monetary policy,” he said.He identified complacency as one of the most immediate risks facing the economy, particularly at the subnational level, where states now enjoy improved fiscal space following recent reforms.According to him, the temptation for pro-cyclical spending by state governments, especially in the build-up to elections, could reverse gains recorded by the Federal Government and key economic managers
The risk of believing that the job is already done is more evident at the subnational level. Fiscal space has increased significantly for states, and in a pre-election year, pro-cyclical fiscal policy becomes a very acute risk,” Ebeke said.
He warned that such spending patterns could easily undo the achievements of the Minister of Finance, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, and other members of the economic team.
Ebeke also cautioned against what he described as “home-grown volatility”, arising from policy missteps that inflict unnecessary pressure on the economy. “A return to exchange rate controls, for example, would be a major mistake at this point. It would deplete reserves, distort market signals, and negatively affect market confidence,” he said.
He added that Nigeria was currently facing difficult policy trade-offs and must avoid decisions that could undermine macroeconomic stability.