The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting that total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, will drop from 2026 to 2027 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month.
According to its February STEO, the EIA sees U.S. oil output averaging 13.60 million barrels per day this year and 13.32 million barrels per day next year. U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, came in at 13.60 million barrels per day in 2025, the STEO highlighted.
In its previous STEO, which was released in January and was the first STEO to offer production predictions for 2027, the EIA saw total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, dropping from 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.59 million barrels per day in 2026 and 13.25 million barrels per day in 2027.
The EIA is projecting in its latest STEO that Lower 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, will produce 11.15 million barrels per day of the 2026 total, and that the Federal Gulf of America and Alaska will produce 1.98 million barrels per day and 0.47 million barrels per day, respectively, of this year’s total figure.
This STEO forecasts that, in 2027, Lower 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, will produce 10.96 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of America will produce 1.87 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0.50 million barrels per day.
In 2025, Lower 48 States, excluding the Gulf of America, produced 11.28 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of America produced 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska produced 0.42 million barrels per day, the EIA’s February STEO showed.
A data page on the EIA website displaying monthly U.S. field production of crude oil – which was last updated on February 6, 2026, and includes data from January 1920 to November 2025 – showed that monthly U.S. field production of crude oil averaged 13.864 million barrels per day in October last year.